Современные демографические трансформации в сельских поселениях юга Тюменской области

Abstract

Представлены результаты оценки движения населения в сельских поселениях Юга Тюменской области в 2014-2020 гг. Дан анализ движению населения в разрезе регионов сложноустроенного субъекта РФ – Тюменской области, дана характеристика динамики сельского населения, его структурным особенностям в 1990-2019 гг. Представлена характеристика движения населения по основным направлениям: естественное движение населения, механическое движение населения. Интегральная качественная оценка демографических трансформаций населения в сельских поселениях Юга Тюменской области показала дифференцированное движение, которое не соотносится с границами муниципальных районов. Даны предложения для реализации региональной демографической политики в сельских поселениях Юга Тюменской области.

The Tyumen region is the only complex constituent entity of the Russian Federation, which includes two autonomous okrugs, which predetermines the development of internal political processes. As residents of a nominal metropolis for raw material autonomies, territorial communities of people in the South of the region bear the costs of organizing regional governance. In such conditions, the ratio of the population size and its dynamics become fundamental. And, if the medium-term prospects for the demographic development of southern cities are optimistic in the medium-term, the institutional administrative role is assigned to rural settlements in regional strategies. The problems of modern demographic transformations in the Tyumen region were studied in detail in the works of geographers, but their focus was on the region, municipal districts, urban districts, settlements. Publication by the Rosstat division of demographic characteristics in the context of rural settlements in municipal bases for the period 2014-2020 allows us to focus on identifying medium-term trends that exclude the influence of only the «coronacrisis», which is extremely sensitive for the socio-economic situation in the Tyumen region. The aim of the study is to assess the dynamics and spatial differentiation of the natural and mechanical movement of the population in rural settlements. To achieve the result, successive tasks have been set: characterization of changes in the population in the Tyumen region, the ratio of rural and urban population; characteristics of the natural movement of the population; characteristics of the mechanical movement of the population; qualitative assessment of demographic transformations in the context of rural settlements. For the study period 2014-2020. in rural settlements in the south of the Tyumen region there was a deterioration in the demographic situation. The area of permanent population decline has grown. Research in the context of rural settlements of the demographic situation made it possible to identify several fundamental features. Firstly, the movement of the population occurs in different directions in rural populations within each of the 20 municipal districts of the South of the Tyumen Region, which makes it possible to focus on certain positive management and organizational practices of certain rural municipalities. Secondly, the strengthening of the role of the agglomeration effect of the regional center, which predetermines the need to take into account the population of most of the adjacent rural settlements as urban, based on geographic realities, and not on the priorities of choosing a tax regime. Thirdly, in the region there was a belt differentiation of demographic results in rural settlements, on the basis of which it is possible to adopt appropriate differentiated measures that have different goals and must operate with different financial and organizational tools.